Introduction
Dubai’s retail real estate market entered Q3 2025 in a phase of measured recalibration. Following a period of accelerated post-pandemic expansion, the sector is now transitioning toward more sustainable, demand-led growth, shaped by selective tenant strategies, diversified supply pipelines, and evolving investor behaviour.
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The Dubai Retail Market Insights – Q3 2025, prepared by Reliant Surveyors and powered by RCG, provides a data-driven assessment of this transition across sales, rentals, pricing, and community-level performance, offering clarity for investors, developers, occupiers, and financial institutions navigating the current market cycle .
Market Overview: A Quarter of Correction, Not Contraction
Q3 2025 highlights a market adjusting rather than retreating. While certain segments experienced marginal softening, overall fundamentals remained resilient, supported by strong transactional activity and sustained interest in both operational and future retail assets.
Key market characteristics during the quarter included:
- A strong resurgence in off-plan retail activity
- Stable performance in ready assets despite selective investor sentiment
- Gradual rental moderation as tenants reassessed space efficiency
- Clear differentiation between prime and neighbourhood retail clusters
This evolving balance reflects a maturing retail market aligning supply, pricing, and occupier demand more closely than in previous growth cycles.
Retail Sales Performance: Off-Plan Momentum Takes the Lead
Transaction Value Trends
Retail sales activity in Q3 2025 was driven primarily by the off-plan segment, which recorded a 37.8% quarter-on-quarter increase in transaction value. In contrast, ready retail sales values dipped slightly by 2.0% QoQ, though they remained strongly positive on a year-on-year basis .
This divergence highlights growing investor confidence in:
- Future-ready retail formats
- Mixed-use developments
- Community-anchored retail within emerging residential zones
Transaction Volume Growth
Sales volumes reinforced this trend. Off-plan retail transactions surged by 92.2% QoQ, while ready retail volumes recorded a modest 2.25% quarterly increase, signalling continued liquidity across both asset classes .
Importantly, the sharp rise in off-plan volumes reflects strategic accumulation rather than speculative activity, with buyers focusing on long-term positioning within Dubai’s expanding urban framework.
Pricing Dynamics: Resilient Valuations Across Segments
Despite market recalibration, retail pricing remained firm in Q3 2025.
- Average off-plan retail prices stood at approximately AED 3,063 per sq.ft
- Average ready retail prices averaged AED 2,104 per sq.ft
Quarter-on-quarter, off-plan prices increased by 13.5%, while ready prices saw a marginal 1.9% softening, yet posted strong year-on-year growth of over 37%, underscoring sustained demand for income-generating retail assets .
These figures reflect a market where pricing power is increasingly tied to location quality, tenant mix, and long-term adaptability, rather than broad-based appreciation.
Retail Rental Market: Mild Softening Amid Tenant Realignment
Rental Value Trends
On the leasing side, Q3 2025 saw modest softening, driven primarily by tenant optimisation strategies rather than structural weakness.
- Renewed leases averaged AED 278.7 per sq.ft
- New leases averaged AED 263.5 per sq.ft
Both metrics edged down quarter-on-quarter, as occupiers recalibrated space requirements and negotiated more efficiently, particularly in secondary retail corridors .
Rental Transaction Activity
Rental transaction values showed mixed movement:
- Renewed lease values declined 14.9% QoQ
- New lease values dipped marginally by 1.0% QoQ
However, year-on-year data remained positive, reinforcing that the rental slowdown reflects normalisation rather than demand erosion .
Area-Wise Retail Performance: Prime vs Neighbourhood Markets
Dubai’s retail market continues to exhibit clear spatial differentiation.
Prime Retail Locations
Areas such as:
- Palm Jumeirah
- Dubai Marina
- Business Bay
maintained higher rental thresholds, supported by tourism activity, premium residential density, and established footfall ecosystems. These zones remain attractive for experiential retail, F&B, and lifestyle-driven operators.
Neighbourhood & Affordable Retail Hubs
Communities including:
- International City
- Discovery Gardens
- Dubai Silicon Oasis
continued to offer more accessible rental levels, supporting strong demand from community-focused retailers, essential services, and value-oriented operators .
This bifurcation reinforces the importance of micro-market analysis when assessing retail viability and investment returns.
Retail Supply: Gradual Expansion, Controlled Impact
Retail supply growth in Dubai remains measured and structured. Total completed retail stock increased steadily through 2025, while under-construction supply remained limited relative to historic expansion cycles.
This disciplined pipeline has helped:
- Prevent oversupply pressures
- Maintain pricing stability
- Support long-term market sustainability
As a result, new retail developments entering the market are increasingly demand-aligned, favouring mixed-use integration and community-anchored formats over standalone retail assets .
Market Outlook: Toward Sustainable Retail Growth
Q3 2025 marks a transition point for Dubai’s retail sector. The market is shifting from rapid expansion to balanced, performance-driven growth, characterised by:
- Selective investor deployment
- Disciplined development strategies
- Tenant-led space optimisation
- Clear segmentation between prime and neighbourhood retail
Looking ahead, retail assets that prioritise location relevance, tenant sustainability, and long-term adaptability are expected to outperform, while generic formats face increasing pressure.
Conclusion
Dubai’s retail market in Q3 2025 demonstrates resilience through recalibration. Strong off-plan momentum, stable ready-asset performance, and controlled rental adjustments signal a market aligning itself with long-term fundamentals rather than short-term volatility.
The Dubai Retail Market Report – Q3 2025 by Reliant Surveyors provides stakeholders with the clarity required to make informed decisions in this evolving landscape — reinforcing Dubai’s position as a mature, globally competitive retail real estate market.
About Reliant Surveyors
Reliant Surveyors is a leading real estate advisory and valuation firm in the UAE, delivering data-driven insights across residential, commercial, retail, industrial, and advisory sectors. Powered by RCG, our research combines market intelligence with professional expertise to support confident investment and planning decisions.
